Elie Mystal recently shared insights about a “secret plan” between Trump and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson to potentially bypass the Electoral College if Trump loses the 2024 election. Mystal’s analysis points to two main strategies: (1) forcing a contingent election in the House and (2) manipulating state certifications to reduce the number of electoral votes needed for a majority. But how realistic is this plan, and what can WE, the PEOPLE, do to counter it?
If you haven’t read the following article, please read it if you like. A lot of what I talk about here builds off that great article:
That “Little Secret” Between Trump and Johnson? Here’s What It Could Mean – The Nation
The Contingent Election via the 12th Amendment
How It Works: If no candidate wins a majority of the Electoral College votes, the House chooses the president, with each state delegation getting one vote. This could favor Republicans, who currently control the majority of state delegations.
Likelihood: While theoretically possible, forcing a contingent election would require significant manipulation to prevent one candidate from reaching 270 votes. Delaying or invalidating state certifications en masse is legally complex and unprecedented. It’s also likely to face intense legal challenges from state and federal courts.
Manipulating State Certifications to Lower the Electoral Threshold
The Idea: Trump’s team might pressure Republican-led states to withhold or delay their certification if he loses, aiming to reduce the total number of electoral votes required for a majority.
Legal Safeguard: The Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022 was enacted to prevent this manipulation. It allows certification disputes to bypass partisan state legislatures and state courts and instead be resolved expeditiously by federal judges.
Role of the Supreme Court: While some conservative justices may lean in Trump’s favor, this is no guarantee. The Court traditionally avoids involvement in election outcomes, though it could delay rulings, indirectly helping Trump. However, the likelihood of the Supreme Court openly supporting election delays en masse remains uncertain.
What’s Stopping This Plan? Key Legal and Procedural Barriers
Electoral Count Reform Act: This act is the strongest safeguard, designed to ensure that certification disputes are resolved quickly at the federal level, cutting through partisan stalling tactics. If Republican legislatures attempt to stall certification, federal courts can step in to enforce deadlines.
Public and Media Scrutiny: High-profile media coverage and public pressure make it politically risky for officials to tamper with election certification. The more attention and scrutiny, the harder it becomes for anyone to disrupt certification without facing the consequences.
Intense Legal Challenges: Democratic and independent legal teams are preparing to counter such moves. If significant certification delays are attempted, these legal defenses are expected to activate at every level.
What WE the PEOPLE Can Do to Help Protect Democracy
- Stay Informed and Share Facts: Knowledge is power. Share accurate information about voting rights, the electoral process, and any legal developments. Counter misinformation with verified facts, especially on social media.
- Pressure Your Representatives: Let your local and state representatives know that election integrity matters to you. Politicians, even those in battleground states, are sensitive to public opinion, especially if they see large-scale pushback against tampering with election outcomes.
- Support Advocacy Groups: Organizations dedicated to election integrity (like the ACLU, Common Cause, and others) are on the front lines. Supporting them through donations or volunteering helps ensure they have the resources to challenge any attempts to disrupt certification.
- Vote, Vote, Vote!: The best way to counteract a strategy like this is to overwhelm the system with a high voter turnout. A clear margin can make it harder for anyone to challenge or manipulate results without facing public backlash.
- Prepare to Mobilize Peacefully: In the event of significant disruption or an attempt to undermine certification, peaceful protests and public demonstrations can make a powerful statement. Coordinated efforts in cities across the country could pressure officials to respect the election process.
Conclusion: The Bottom Line
The plan described relies on exploiting procedural gaps, but it’s riddled with legal and logistical obstacles. The Electoral Count Reform Act and other legal protections make it challenging to stall certifications on a large enough scale to impact the outcome. While the strategy could create uncertainty, the chances of it completely subverting the election process remain low.
However, staying vigilant, informed, and actively engaged is essential. Democracy isn’t just something to participate in on Election Day; it’s a continuous responsibility.
#EnoughIsEnough #ProtectOurVote #ElectionIntegrity
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